Thursday, November 10, 2011

November 10: LoanSifter & Google; servicing settlement news; are F&F doing enough? Ginnie Mae in the spotlight - in a good way

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We now have two weeks until Thanksgiving, first celebrated in the fall of 1621.
Yesterday we discussed how six states account for two-thirds of U.S. turkey production.
Looking at the other side of the plate, U.S. cranberry production is 750 million
pounds per the USDA. Wisconsin leads the way with 430 million pounds, followed
by Massachusetts, New Jersey, Oregon, and Washington. And let's not forget sweet
potatoes: 2.4 billion pounds for the year is the USDA's estimate, 40% coming from
North Carolina.

Europe obviously doesn't celebrate Thanksgiving, but amid all the focus on European
politics, it is important to note that economic growth for the region is falling
well short of expectations. The EU slashed growth forecasts for 2012 and the ECB
disclosed that its survey of forecasters also saw a big drop in expectations. Weaker
growth could force governments to adopt even more aggressive austerity measures.
As folks know, problems in Europe will last for many months, possibly years.

Speaking of problems that will last for many months, possibly years, the OCC and
the Fed will require targeted servicers to review their foreclosure actions. "The
OCC and the Federal Reserve announced an agreement with a number of mortgage servicers
that allows borrowers who believe they suffered financial harm stemming from foreclosure
processes to request an independent review of their circumstances." Order some cases
of Red Bull: government officials said as many as 4.5 million cases could be involved.
The Federal Reserve announcement can be found at FedActions [http://r20.rs6.net/tn.jsp?llr=zy6u9cdab&et=1108579886706&s=8721&e=001S24KvHQFv9HJB8Y-WDDKtZL4i0lEFfWykg_4a5JPGNJGxk0bo9JNRCWxdFFZcOptk8HLOtmieM1CKatmrKeCjPnw1Hx4lRtxZh3eXh7vfbGJp8b_MB8xUmFp9ukRylhUSHUO_1qrCEw0sYyb4MoNr2cLR3fIQYMMZ_UeI_ze2lDS3U6GncG_2Cxd6zYvucV3]
and involves four mortgage servicers it supervises: GMAC, HSBC, SunTrust, and EMC.
The OCC action, seen at OCCAction [http://r20.rs6.net/tn.jsp?llr=zy6u9cdab&et=1108579886706&s=8721&e=001S24KvHQFv9Faoroe_CUHAKcnN7Uc5OSVdJk0Ueiuusfs9ojgAyRR3KdXClTcuxWbmacd4n9J9OQUUW_Aq0R4y7j1r6nOc0AT5Srca605cSr-Q5as7gh3aGexiJsb2ZfP223weS9p4Nrmt-yugc8iFXEgBlkP8OnnyyjHfSUtFu3gBPEe-qx8e_jkW4PIyDB66HPaiSeQ-1QKEFJLLQKdzGmvqYLxdj2gAFngkLAUXLJoTQPfJ6vkUw==],
involves potentially more than two dozen mortgage servicers under its jurisdiction.
As many remember, 18 months ago the OCC, Fed, and OTS announced enforcement actions
against 14 large residential mortgage servicers and two third-party vendors for
"unsafe and unsound practices related to residential mortgage servicing and foreclosure
processing." As part of those consent orders, federal regulators required servicers
to engage independent firms to conduct a multi-faceted review of foreclosure actions
for '09 & '10.

It is rumored that the price tag to settle the state and federal investigation of
bank foreclosure practices has increased by at least $5 billion to $25 billion.
No wonder banks and servicers (in most cases the same institutions) are beefing
up reserves. $25 billion for the nation's five largest mortgage servicing companies:
(alphabetically) Ally, BofA, Chase, Citi, and Wells. But does the settlement depend
on bringing California back? (It left the talks in early October.) How will the
billions be divvied up, and who is going to oversee it?

The enforcement actions also required servicers to correct other deficiencies in
residential mortgage loan servicing and foreclosure practices going forward. Servicers
must specify a single point of contact for certain borrowers who are having difficulty
paying their mortgages, ensure that foreclosures are not pursued when a borrower
is performing on a loan modification, and establish "robust controls and oversight"
over their third-party vendors. Under this recent announcement, borrowers are eligible
for a review if their primary residence was in the foreclosure process in 2009 or
2010, whether or not the foreclosure was completed. The review would determine if
those borrowers suffered financial harm directly resulting from errors, misrepresentation,
or other deficiencies.
A hotline number has been established (888-952-9105) along with a website, DidYouMakeYourPaymentsOrNot?
[http://r20.rs6.net/tn.jsp?llr=zy6u9cdab&et=1108579886706&s=8721&e=001S24KvHQFv9H2v-qx6Z3AT3SY5u-6LxRs-mIOsFhbcqA-KBU0BX6dbsS4Khl8LDbApL7IpDaoYfVh6vwX0T8FuAWadj2KGI55sGIUWnPAutO1BFcaxZXbc2UX6YZSoDGCK9TEqKjRYOI=].
To support awareness, servicers will conduct an advertising campaign and send letters
to borrowers who may be eligible. The agencies said requests for review by the servicers'
independent consultants must be received by April 30, 2012. Are we having fun yet?

Fannie Mae is rumored to be getting out among the people again. There are companies
out there that fill out the application, but don't know where to send it. Fannie
is looking for more sellers, and more seller-servicers. But the GSE is rumored
to be monitoring foreclosure time periods for large lenders, so that after the REO
sale, big servicers are dinged if the property sold X number of days after the average
of either national or state numbers - and big servicers are usually inclined to
pass things like that down the food chain. Rumors only!
When a company is losing money, management tries to change that by lowering costs
or making more money: simple. Why should Freddie & Fannie be any different? Since
being placed into conservatorship they have steadily increased guarantee fees and
lessened the degree of cross subsidization in credit pricing. But industry observers
suggest that even with these improvements the GSE's current pricing for credit guarantees
is less than one would likely observe in a purely private, competitive market. Put
another way, given today's real estate markets and delinquency issues, it appears
reasonable to assume that fully private firms operating with their own capital at
risk would be more likely to give greater weight to more negative scenarios or model
uncertainty than F&F do operating under the umbrella of conservatorship and government
capital. In addition, private firms would likely target a higher rate of return
than the GSE's, and the market would demand higher levels of capital. Therefore,
a logical next step in conservatorship is to continue down the path already started
of gradually increasing guarantee fee pricing to better reflect that which would
be anticipated in a private, competitive market.
And if you think about it, jacking up the g-fees might actually help stabilize things
somewhat. One can model and make educated guesses about the price a purely competitive,
private market would charge for a given set of mortgage credit characteristics presented
by any given borrower, but we can't know this with certainty. For these reasons,
many believe that a series of periodic, gradual price increases makes more sense
than one or two larger price adjustments, and thus anticipate the F&F will continue
the gradual process of increasing guarantee fees. This will not happen immediately
but should be expected in 2012, with lots of warning (as has become standard). And
don't look for lenders to keep this cost - it will certainly be passed on to the
borrower.
But Fannie & Freddie aren't the only ones in the news. Ginnie Mae has reported that
its fiscal year net income for 2011 hit $1.2 billion - a record. "Ginnie Mae has
had a remarkable year; it's our best yet," said its president Ted Tozer. "Our financial
performance this fiscal year-despite a mortgage market still in turmoil-is a testament
to our well-functioning business model. Our business is simple, our approach to
risk-taking is conservative, and our ability to finance government-insured mortgages
is helping to keep the housing market afloat." Numbers indicate that Ginnie-backed
loans financed nearly 60% of all home purchases in fiscal year 2011. And in fact
so far this year Ginnie Mae (that doesn't buy mortgages but instead insures and
packages mortgages backed by the FHA, VA, and other agencies, and is 100% explicitly
backed by the U.S. government) has issued more mortgage bonds than Freddie Mac.

And as politicians and regulators fumble along, either trying to figure out what
to do about Freddie & Fannie or not dealing with the issue at all, some groups
say Ginnie Mae is an example of how the government could retain a role in the market
without the kind of taxpayer risk posed by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. Under the
Ginnie model, the FHA and servicers are the first lines of defense when a loan
defaults. Ginnie pays investors only when a servicer fails - like Taylor, Bean and
Whitaker which was servicing $26 billion in Ginnie Mae loans when it collapsed into
bankruptcy in 2009. Ginnie has $600 million in loan-loss reserves and $16 billion
in capital reserves. And smaller servicers should be happy to know that as larger
companies may not want to service as many loans, Ginnie is trying to woo smaller
players into selling and servicing Ginnie Mae securities. Perhaps this will help
speed up the Ginnie Mae application and approval process which in some cases takes
years.

In all the excitement over the Fannie & ResCap news yesterday, I didn't have space
to note that LoanSifter and Google have teamed up. LoanSifter, known for its product
and real-time pricing platform, and Google, known for, uh, being Google, announced
a "strategic relationship that gives consumers access to mortgage loan products
and real-time pricing based on LoanSifter's technology, including side-by-side comparisons
of mortgage loan products from multiple lenders through Google's Comparison Ads."
The press release said that the Google users will be given rates and in turn LoanSifter's
lenders will receive qualified online leads: ANickelAMortgageIsAllWeWant [http://r20.rs6.net/tn.jsp?llr=zy6u9cdab&et=1108579886706&s=8721&e=001S24KvHQFv9Fo-Z3Gp883LYda3Xp5sPvSJRqPPsf7qJzbW-N9G5AABU-J59DBlczFSam0UUgmBMn9SNZ1UosZz50jgNhcl2-rRQhN9Imv_YV3MdW8BU-9n5YMzGKt_OlXV2j8BftJtislmoG-_c2r-0OrQ37ejSGbfrHTwAHoFg-eK_JarbFznlwxLGmwRSkgwm1iZV8nok9GnClX4_nZkABADcw7U6fC].

Rate-wise, yesterday continued gyrations from situations in Italy and Greece and
sent the Dow tumbling 3%, while 10-year Treasury notes improved 1 point and down
to a yield of 1.95%. But apparently MBS investors are nervous about new mortgages
staying on their books for very long: 30-year 3.5% and 4.0% coupons improved by
about .125 on lighter-than-average selling.

Tomorrow bond markets are closed (and anyone producing a rate sheet tends to price
conservatively) but today we do have some U.S. news to chew on. We've had Jobless
Claims (-10k to 390k), Import Prices, and the Trade Balance (-$43 billion). And
later we'll have a $16 billion 30-yr bond auction. But rates (and stocks) were showing
some rebound from yesterday prior to these numbers, and we have the 10-yr back to
2.05% and MBS prices worse by .125-.250.

We always hear about problems with third world countries. What about problems in
first world countries?
"My hand is too fat to shove into the Pringles container so I have to tilt it."
"I didn't have a lousy childhood, so I can't turn my pain into art."
"I had too much food for lunch and now I'm tired."
"I forgot to bring my phone with me to the bathroom and I was bored the whole time."
"I'm kind of hungry, but my roommate has guests over so if I go into the kitchen
I'll have to introduce myself."
"My laptop battery is low, but the charger is way over there."
"The Domino Pizza Tracker app is not working, so I don't know when to put my pants
on."
"I can't hear the TV while I'm eating crunchy snacks."
"I'm trying to text while at a red light, but I keep making all the greens."
"My GPS made me drive through the ghetto."
"I have to find my own girlfriend because my culture doesn't practice arranged marriages."

If you're interested, visit my twice-a-month blog at the STRATMOR Group web site
located at
www.stratmorgroup.com [http://r20.rs6.net/tn.jsp?llr=zy6u9cdab&et=1106435366068&s=4179&e=001SVt-ljbp53436QjxD9vbwURtIPPjV05jEcEKyBN3SjS2forXe0C_foO8RjEV-Uye0N7Z_Sh1il0SRXPx6PjQauayNXQjni-Hc9Sseu-hhZcR1ujeZyAEpw==]
. The current blog takes a look at the impact of HARP 2.0 and the differences in
the agency's programs. If you have both the time and inclination, make a comment
on what I have written, or on other comments so that folks can learn what's going
on out there from the other readers.

Rob

(Check out
http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/channels/pipelinepress/default.aspx
[http://r20.rs6.net/tn.jsp?llr=zy6u9cdab&t=stjfioiab.0.epg7qedab.zy6u9cdab.8721&ts=S0696&p=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.mortgagenewsdaily.com%2Fchannels%2Fpipelinepress%2Fdefault.aspx]
or
www.TheBasisPoint.com/category/daily-basis [http://r20.rs6.net/tn.jsp?llr=zy6u9cdab&t=stjfioiab.0.v7uif6dab.zy6u9cdab.8721&ts=S0696&p=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.thebasispoint.com%2Fcategory%2Fdaily-basis].
For archived commentaries, go to
www.robchrisman.com [http://r20.rs6.net/tn.jsp?llr=zy6u9cdab&t=stjfioiab.0.fpg7qedab.zy6u9cdab.8721&ts=S0696&p=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.robchrisman.com%2F].
Copyright 2011 Rob Chrisman. All rights reserved. Occasional paid notices do appear.
This report or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without
the written consent of Rob Chrisman.)
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