Monday, August 19, 2013

Rate Weekly Preview

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15-30 Day - Locking

What is on the agenda for this week?

Date
Time (ET)
Economic Release
Actual
Market Expects
Prior
21-Aug
7:00 AM
MBA Mortgage Index
-
NA
-4.70%
21-Aug
10:00 AM
Existing Home Sales
-
5.20M
5.08M
21-Aug
10:30 AM
Crude Inventories
-
NA
-2.812M
21-Aug
2:00 PM
FOMC Minutes
-
-
-
22-Aug
8:30 AM
Initial Claims
-
337K
320K
22-Aug
8:30 AM
Continuing Claims
-
2959K
2969K
22-Aug
9:00 AM
FHFA Housing Price Index
-
NA
0.70%
22-Aug
10:00 AM
Leading Indicators
-
0.50%
0.00%
22-Aug
10:30 AM
Natural Gas Inventories
-
NA
65 bcf
23-Aug
10:00 AM
New Home Sales
-
490K
497K

We have a very light week for economic releases with Existing Home Sales and Weekly Initial Jobless Claims being the most important.

The most impactful events this week will not economic reports but Fed events.  Wednesday's FOMC minutes will be a major driving force in pricing as traders look to see how much traction tapering talk had at the last FOMC meeting. 

Thursday and Friday the market will focus on the Jackson Hole Wyoming meeting as Central Bankers and economists from around the world attend the retreat.  Traders will be focusing on any discussion on the timing of the Fed's tapering of bond purchases and who the next Fed Chair will be.

Sentiment continues to mount that the Fed will taper in September.  We will need some new commentary from the Fed's talking heads that changes trader's minds from expecting a taper in September to December for MBS to see any improvement in pricing.

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