Wednesday, September 21, 2011

September 21: More production jobs; positive LO comp feedback; the impact of foreclosure numbers

I handed the teller at my bank a withdrawal slip for $400.00. I said "May I

have

 large bills, please." She looked at me and said, "I'm sorry sir, all the

bills

are the same size."



What isn't the same size are the top 20 retail lenders in the 2nd quarter.

There

 are certainly those out there that believe that DTC (Direct to Consumer)

lending

is not only coming on strong but will, at some point, pass retail channels.

Per

the MBA, internet-lending still accounts for less than 10% of mortgage

lending.

But in the meantime here are the top group of retailers: Wells Fargo, Chase,

Bank

of America, PHH Mortgage, CitiMortgage, Quicken Loans, U.S. Bank Home

Mortgage,

SunTrust, USAA Federal Savings Bank, MetLife Home Loans, PNC

Mortgage/National City,

Fifth Third Mortgage, PrimeLending, Branch Banking & Trust Co., Ally/ResCap

(GMAC),

Regions Mortgage, Mortgage Investors Corporation, DHI Mortgage, Navy FCU,

and TD

 Banknorth Mortgage, per National Mortgage News.

Out in California, First Mortgage Corporation is expanding its operations.

The Southern

California Mortgage Banker is seeking an individual to develop a

correspondent channel,

it is hiring underwriters (in the Inland Empire area), regional production

managers

for Northern CA, AZ, NV, and TX, loan officers, and a corporate recruiter.

The company

has been around for nearly 40 years, and although it is primarily in

California

FMC also operates branches in AZ, NM, NV, and WA.  "FMC originates, funds,

securitizes,

and services the loans it originates, services approximately $3 billion, and

is

the 24th largest GNMA issuer in the country.  FMC continues to embrace the

guidelines

set forth by FHA and FNMA with little or no overlays." Please send resumes

to Clem



I continue to receive compensation feedback. "I am writing today in hopes of

helping

other wholesale broker owners not only survive but actually thrive in this

new bank

dominated environment.  After all, those of us that are left need to stick

together.

 I am the sole shareholder and President of an 11 year seasoned mortgage

brokerage

and one of the few broker shops remaining in our area - the others have all

become

net branches, etc.  I currently employ 6 loan originators (just hired an LO

from

 a net branch), 2 processors and no longer originate loans myself; the

latter being

a first in our 11 year history.



"With that being said, I can honestly say that this company is a better

company

today than in the previous 11 years; not in terms of overall volume but in

terms

 of the people it employs (true professionals), how much revenue the company

earns

per loan and how much better expenses are managed - the reasons I can now

focus

the majority of my time building a better company for my LO's.  How is this

possible?

 As an office, we have simply chosen to embrace the new comp plan and take

advantage

of the price disparity that has arisen with this new "bank dominated"

market.  To

be specific, we have chosen a lender paid comp plan of 275 basis points with

the

 originator earning 130 "bps" and the company earning 145.  This is only now

possible

for three reasons: First, the vast majority of our competition (banks) have

substantially

higher rates than wholesale which allows us to remain competitive, second,

today's

mortgage broker expertise is worth substantially more than 45 to 80 basis

points

 - not to mention that loans are harder to come by and equally hard to

close.  Third,

and arguably the most important, we made a critical shift in our thinking in

two

 areas.  One, our LO's have seen firsthand and understand what a broker shop

must

earn per loan in order to keep doors open and to provide the tools they need

to

succeed and two, we all, including myself, now realize that being

transparent and

honest with our fees and credits is actually what the consumer desires -

thanks

to the distrust that banks have created for themselves over that past few

years.



In an example of how decision making works, "The Housing Policy Council of

the Financial

Services Roundtable (HPC) has made recommendations to the Federal Housing

Finance

Agency (FHFA), U.S. Department of the Treasury and the U.S. Department of

Housing

& Urban Development (HUD) in response to the request for ideas on reducing

the Real

Estate-Owned (REO) properties of the government-sponsored enterprises (GSEs)

and

 the Federal Housing Administration (FHA)." "The Housing Policy Council

supports

 the goal of reducing the inventory of REO properties of Fannie Mae, Freddie

Mac

 and the FHA," said John H. Dalton, president of the Housing Policy Council.

"The

overhang of these properties is one of the factors preventing a full

recovery of

 the housing market." The Roundtable's Housing Policy Council is made up of

32 companies

that originate 75% of the mortgages in the US.

"REO properties should be sold in a timely fashion, and in significant

blocks based

on local market conditions," said Dalton. "Purchasers of the REO properties

should

have the flexibility to sell, rent, or demolish if necessary to enable the

local

 real estate market to begin to recover. Additionally, these properties need

to

be sold 'free and clear' to purchasers." According to the letter, an

effective REO

disposition program should address these factors: The GSEs should not become

landlords.

The sales of the REO properties should be on a free and clear basis; Price

for the

REO properties should be maximized by limiting the conditions attached to

the sales;

To the extent possible the efficiencies of large scale should be a factor in

determining

the size of the blocs of properties that are sold, but size should be

balanced with

the potential impact on values in key markets; Utilize contractual terms to

ensure

that the sales are conducted appropriately and the properties are

administered in

a manner that meets responsible standards; and so on.



"It is important that Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac or FHA do not remain landlords

in

the REO process," said Dalton. "We share the desire of HUD and FHFA to

reduce, in

a responsible fashion, the amount of REO currently on the books of the GSEs

and

FHA. The overhang of that property and of the REOs held by the private

sector has

reduced the pace at which the housing industry can recover from its

downturn. Creating

effective programs to reduce the GSE and FHA REO inventory is one step in

the right

direction."

In a similar vein, Bank of America is ramping up its foreclosure processing

again,

having sent out far more notices of default to borrowers in August than in

previous

months. Delays in processing artificially lowered foreclosure numbers over

the past

year due to the "robo-signing" scandal; the new surge likely addresses loans

that

have been long delinquent. Analysts believe that this will tend to keep

values down

in many markets for 6+ months.



But do foreclosure numbers tell us anything? The press sure makes a big deal

out

 of them, especially the recent slowdown. Barclays Capital quantified the

lengthening

of timelines, and discussed recent trends. First, liquidation timelines have

risen

across all sectors, especially in the subprime and negative amortization

sector,

 where timelines have increased by approximately 10 and 12 months,

respectively,

 since 2008. "Liquidation timelines understate the true severity of

foreclosure

delays because they provide information only on loans that have advanced to

liquidation.

Once we include loans that have been frozen in the delinquency or

foreclosure stage,

the actual amount of time required to process a delinquent loan is much

longer.

Judicial states always had longer timelines, and they also experienced a

much greater

increase in processing times than loans in non-judicial states after the

robo-signing

issue came to light. Among judicial foreclosure states, New York and Florida

have

experienced some of the longest foreclosure delays. As a side effect of

longer timelines,

stop advance rates have risen and servicers have offered more loan

modifications

 to distressed borrowers in longer timeline states."



Barclays goes on. "Our expectations of a prolonged slowdown from last year

have

materialized. Now we believe the situation is close to a point where

improvements

in trends should start to emerge. There has already been some improvement in

60+

 to foreclosure roll rates, and we expect an improvement in foreclosure to

REO roll

rates once the composition of loans in foreclosure shifts to loans without

documentation

or filing issues. In particular, Countrywide- and Citi-serviced loans have

recently

experienced a pickup in 60+ to foreclosure roll rates. Although there may be

a lag

in the timing of when different servicers and states start to see

improvements in

timeline rolls, we expect further improvements in coming months. That said,

improvement

in rolls should not automatically result in lower timelines on future

defaults right

away. The average number of months delinquent for the 60+ and foreclosure

pipelines

is very high and unless most of them are liquidated over the next 12-18

months,

timelines on defaulting loans will not show signs of improvement."



The MBA has expanded the number of participants in its applications survey

and the

firm says it will capture about 75% of retail and direct mortgage

applications,

up from 50% previously. And the indexes were re-benchmarked as of January to

reflect

the new sample. Using the new numbers, which should be more indicative of

the industry,

apps were up last week .6%, with refi's +2.2% and purchases -4.7%.



The Fed sends out the results of its meeting today. "Operation Twist," also

known

as "Operation we don't have any new tools so we may-as-well pull out the

same old

hammer" is certainly garnering its share of time in the press. "Forward

guidance,"

was unveiled at the Aug. 8-9 meeting: the Fed pledged to hold the benchmark

rate

 near zero at least through mid-2013. The odds-on favorite to debut at the

conclusion

of the two-day meeting is an effort to extend the maturity of the Fed's

portfolio,

with the goal of lowering long-term interest rates. Critics argue that

changing

the maturity of the debt on a balance sheet does nothing to change the size

of the

Fed's balance sheet.



Mortgage prices may, in some indirect way, be helped, but I have not heard

anyone

complain about mortgage rates in a very long time. Yesterday prices ended

the day

worse by a shade while the 10-yr closed at 1.95%. The markets are expected

to remain

focused and reactive to the events out of Europe and Greece, as they await

the FOMC's

decision. Currently the 10-yr is around 1.94 - fixed-income prices are

pretty much

unchanged from Tuesday.



Lars asked Ole, "Do ya know da difference between a Norvegian and a canoe?"

"No, I don't," said Ole

"A canoe will sometimes tip," explained Lars.



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