Wednesday, January 22, 2014

Storm may lead to a quiet market; are we going to hire or lend to millennials?



The residential lending industry, and the companies inside of it, is always in a state of flux. I am repeatedly hearing, "We're keeping a close eye on personnel costs - if apps stay down here, we'll be evaluating our staffing." We all know what that means - and I don't see applications zooming higher in the near future. Who will make it through to Memorial Day unscathed? Yahoo recently wrote about it. The title of the article is a little misleading as not all the banks featured are cutting, and there are reminders that the originators that hustle/leave their desk will have more success than those that don't.
 
"I want my children to have all the things I couldn't afford. Then I want to move in with them." I would venture a guess that the majority of our comrades in lending or real estate have children of varying ages. I recently saw a cartoon of a high school boy talking to his counselor, saying, "I'd like one of those careers where you make a six-figure income while wearing a T-shirt and sweatpants." How are these youngsters coming along? Sallie Mae tells us that the average American family borrows 27% of the total cost of their child's college education, either through student loans or loans taken out by Mom and Dad. Experian research finds that when comparing the generations, it finds Gen Y (Millennials, 19-29 years old) has an average credit score of 628 vs. 653 for Gen X (30-46 years old), 700 for Baby Boomers (47-65 years old) and 735 for the Greatest Generation (66 years and older).
 
Banks and lenders have been known to write off Gen Y for a host of reasons, including that they typically have less money to invest and need fewer products and services. Simply put, Gen Y isn't as profitable now as other customer segments, but that will change. Baby Boomers are a good source of business for retirement planning and revenue for banks and other lenders, but we should not find ourselves generationally "locked down" and forget about Gen Y and Gen X. There are 90 million Gen Y (Millennials) folks around, and lenders are salivating. For banks looking to provide retirement advice, a new survey from TIAA-CREF finds 43% of respondents between the ages of 18 and 34 don't feel informed about retirement planning. By contrast, only 15% of those polled between the ages of 35 and 44 feel that way. It is true that those in Gen Y still have many years before retirement, but it's all about tailoring your message to fit the audience. So while many 20-somethings may turn a deaf ear when it comes to retirement issues, you'll have a more willing audience if you discuss savings and budgeting. And LOs find themselves taking the role of counselor rather than mortgage order taker.
 
Studies find people in their 20s today aren't as likely be entrepreneurs as are their Baby Boomer counterparts, but the percentage who run their own businesses typically goes up with age so get involved early. Banks and lenders are trying to create strong relationships over time: you want to be on the short list of companies today's 20-somethings turn to down the road for business loans, small business services, and home loans. To attract Millennials LOs agree that mobile access is a given, especially for banking. Banks and lenders also must have online tools and resources youngsters can use to help them figure out their finances. Understand that Gen Y has grown up in the Internet world, so they are very comfortable online and find enjoyment communicating digitally. This is an on-demand and do it yourself (DIY) generation, so technology is important. The key for community bankers, however, is also to understand that technology alone isn't enough. There is no substitute for one-on-one attention, so don't forget your roots because your bank is already well positioned at its core - just add more tools.
Many in the mortgage business think we are at a war of survival.  Garth Graham has a different take on this, as he recommends Preparing more for battle before you start fighting to maintain your market share. 
 
With no news, and a storm hitting, the MBS and fixed income markets didn't do a whole heckuva lot Tuesday, except discuss how the refereeing during the 49er/Seahawks game was poor. Looking at our pal the 10-yr, its yield Friday was 2.83%, began Tuesday at 2.86%, and ended the day at 2.83% - just not much to say! In the very early going we're at 2.85%, and agency MBS prices are off a tick or two - but the issue today may be more "liquidity" - which traders came into work today during the storm? 

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