Thursday, December 29, 2011

December 29: A few good mortgage studies; one wholesaler rolls out HARP 2.0 and investors' thoughts on 2.0's impact

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Who says that folks in the mortgage business can't rhyme and rap

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W493amX-YVQBPoypY1NIghmlRRqJNlDihjH4oTfHMFaEDqFuxKQxcanJSfBXAZglsiwQ==]?



If you're away from your home, and you come back and find that a pipe has

burst,  and the place is flooding, do you a) fix the leak, or b) raise the

roof? I realize that the situation is more complex than that, but the White

House plans to ask Congress for an increase in the government's debt ceiling

to allow the United States to pay its bills on time. Didn't we just go

through this? The approval is expected to go through without a challenge,

given that Congress is in recess until later in January and the request is

in line with an agreement to keep the U.S. government funded into 2013. The

debt is projected to fall within $100 billion of the current cap by December

30, when the United States has $82 billion in interest on its debt and

payments such as Social Security coming due. President Barack Obama is

expected to ask for authority to increase the borrowing limit by $1.2

trillion, part of the spending authority that was negotiated between

Congress and the White House this  summer. Under the agreement struck in

August during the showdown over the government's debt limit, the cap is

automatically raised unless Congress votes to block the debt-ceiling

extension.

I mentioned this before, but wanted to mention it again: it seems that MI

will stop being deductible in 2012 unless Congress acts - and they're on

recess into January.

I received this note from a reader on the west coast: "From my

understanding, the PMI deduction will be completely eliminated and will not

be available to any taxpayer.

 This is definitely something I have an issue with, as it next to impossible

for  a first-time buyer to get a home anywhere without paying PMI, but

unfortunately, I don't make the rules. Since there doesn't appear to be any

last minute tax battles in Congress like there was last year, I don't

foresee this changing at least for  the 2012 tax year."



And speaking of Congress, a year and a half has gone by since the Dodd-Frank

financial reform act was signed into law, "but barely a quarter of the rules

in the legislation have been finalized, though federal regulators are

rolling out key components of  the bill

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PFaWvlyH1ABmO3rbfoNyzZ-C62b6EibXAjhsseOm_FKqpW1If4lwWtpghyt0ftVarMdCciGQk0gd

pQ3XVIc8SzG_Z-XeXYw_Y0ShF_JgStoam8msQjYM9DEA==]."



Holistic financial counseling - counseling that focuses on a borrower's

entire financial situation - can prevent both foreclosures and re-defaults,

according to a recent  White Paper study sponsored by Florida-based special

servicer, Outreach Financial Services, and authored by STRATMOR's Dr. Matt

Lind. According to the white paper, servicers avoid net losses of about

$3,894 on an average $210,000 loan for each borrower who receives basic

counseling. However, this figure increases to between

$5,754 and $7,147 when borrowers receive holistic counseling aimed at their

total debt and spending patterns. Read it at Counseling

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b7I2KsFivK3OZRBvEkCuVxdHUi-HVkg8mRXCZBLz5Oo7OlDiKo9DMLsIq3F5nQT_H6PPcx-dmSdz

omd4kWPZk2jEzLYk4_IeEbA6D8-BP6sKR0ReX-fRwDBZn75raCR6w7_XZgCDorVXxGbA==]

or contact Matt Lind at Matt.Lind@Stratmorgroup.com


if you have questions.



And here's another study to read over the upcoming 3-day weekend: the MBA

and the Research Institute for Housing America (RIHA) released of a new

exclusive report:

"The Great Recession and Attitudes Toward Home Buying." "The report finds

that almost

80 percent of American households believe that now is a good time to buy a

home,  despite high unemployment, slow economic growth and problems plaguing

the economy.

This positive attitude is attributable to low house prices and low mortgage

interest rates. The data shows that the pattern of home-buying sentiment

during the current recession looks similar to that of past recessions and is

consistent with the long-run average level." This is good to know, and it is

good to know that it is free at and available for download at


[http://r20.rs6.net/tn.jsp?llr=zy6u9cdab&et=1109019318003&s=8721&e=001jO96TH

b7I2Jg6vgDQhQS7HLOq6707eTVBeIUxcGCEagJjkkwfUPAFBopNz4KAkc12FuvN_g__TC6cPt-TQ

k4H1SdzIiqZAG9wjRPUPSRXty3FdL7jbbbgFKlGKxKEULy].



Most lenders have resigned themselves to not seeing any HARP 2.0 business

until March (although see below!), when it is incorporated into the

automatic underwriting systems and the market figures out where the loans

should be priced. But investor chatter continues, with some examining the

exact percentage of loans being processed through DU Refi Plus, and whether

rep and warrants related to "ability to repay"

 falls under "underwriting" or "employment/income". We know that Fannie Mae

has reported that around 30% of their HARP refinancings have used automated

appraisals, which were only available through DU Refi Plus until recently.

Given this statistic, it is reasonable to assume that DU Refi Plus

applications consist of at least 30% of HARP refinances but the true number

is actually higher since the coverage for  automated appraisals for Fannie

Mae is somewhat limited. Although it is difficult to gauge the exact number,

analysts put the number at around 30-50% of total HARP refi applications.

The second question investors are interested in answering is whether the

"ability to repay" putbacks would fall under "underwriting" or

"employment/income". Note that buyback statistics are not restricted to HARP

putbacks and trends across originators may vary. In the context of this

information, the Mortgage Bankers Association states the following trends in

"Employment/Income" related claims: both Fannie and Freddie verify

employment (VoE) on stated income products, Fannie makes use of bankruptcy

documents to identify income issues, and Freddie uses outside investigators

to locate past employers. So the "employment/income" related claims are

related to employment verification (whether the borrower has a job) or

income inconsistencies (i.e., reported and actual income are different). The

"ability to repay" is ascertained after income and employment information is

gathered and buyback requests related to this specific issue thus falls

under "underwriting".



United Wholesale Mortgage (UWM

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b7I2IMwV95tOdZHJQ4dF5cSR8QHtYZCm4Erzsj2Mr7153RT5HDvVv2Ub8qVo4nKT5tXIy7i_wp9S

qnjBQVF5_WQz5YcMqyA-6mj9U=])

has announced that it has successfully implemented the government's

enhancements  to the HARP 2.0 that went into effect Dec. 1, 2011. Mat

Ishbia, president of UWM said, "There are very few lenders that have

implemented HARP 2.0 thus far, and we don't expect to see immediate adoption

because of the technology, staffing and liquidity implications. At UWM, we

are committed to offering our customers the products they need to satisfy

marketplace demands and grow their business." The press release noted, "UWM

added HARP Phase II to its broker portal, EASE (Easiest Application System

Ever), where brokers can price and determine eligibility via EQ (Easy

Qualifier).

The primary changes to HARP are the reduction of pricing adjustments on all

HARP  loans which allows borrowers to save more money than they could have

before, removing the 125 percent CLTV restriction, and the ability to not

require appraisals on many loans. Notable is that Fannie Mae and Fannie

Mae's Desktop Underwriter (DU) system will not be updated to accept

unlimited loan-to-value applications until March of 2012, and UWM will roll

out that enhancement once Fannie Mae's system is ready."



And rates are certainly good! Yesterday the yield on the 10-yr shot down

through  2.00% and closed at 1.91% on thin holiday volume and a lack of

economic news. Numerous investors had price improvements, certainly helped

by continued Fed MBS buying.

Thomson Reuters noted, "When volume is as low as it is, fewer people (and

fewer

dollars) are required to move market levels such as stock indexes, bond

yields, or MBS prices."



The economic calendar for today includes Jobless Claims at 8:30am (expected

higher to +375k but came in +15k to 381k), 9:45AM EST brings December

Chicago Purchasing Managers index (expected 61.0 vs. 62.6 previously) and

10AM EST Pending Home Sales for November (only +1.5 vs. +10.4 prior print).

Ahead of all that rates are pretty much unchanged from Wednesday's close

with the 10-yr at 1.92% and MBS prices "unched".

A man had just settled into his seat next to the window on the plane when

another man sat down in the aisle seat and put his black Labrador Retriever

in the middle seat next to the man.

The first man looked very quizzically at the dog and asked why the dog was

allowed on the plane.

The second man explained that he was from the Police Drugs Enforcement

Agency and that the dog was a 'sniffing dog'.

"His name is Sniffer and he's the best there is. I'll show you once we get

airborne, when I put him to work."

The plane took off, and once it has leveled out, the Policeman said, "Watch

this."

He told Sniffer to 'search'.

Sniffer jumped down, walked along the aisle, and finally sat very

purposefully next to a woman for several seconds.

Sniffer then returned to his seat and put one paw on the policeman's arm.

The Policeman said, 'Good boy', and he turned to the man and said, "That

woman is in possession of marijuana, I'm making a note of her seat number

and the authorities will apprehend her when we land."

"Gee, that's pretty good," replied the first man.

Once again, the Policeman sent Sniffer to search the aisles.

The Lab sniffed about, sat down beside a man for a few seconds, returned to

its seat, and this time he placed two paws on the agent's arm.

The Policeman said, "That man is carrying cocaine, so again, I'm making a

note of his seat number for the police."

"I like it!" said his seat mate.

The Policeman then told Sniffer to 'search' again.

Sniffer walked up and down the aisles for a little while, sat down for a

moment,  and then came racing back to the agent, jumped into the middle seat

and proceeded to defecate all over the place.

The first man was really disgusted by this behavior and couldn't figure out

how or why a well-trained dog would behave like that. So he asked the

Policeman, "What's going on?"

The Policeman nervously replied, "He's just found a bomb."



If you're interested, visit my twice-a-month blog at the STRATMOR Group web

site  located at www.stratmorgroup.com

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jQauayNXQjni-Hc9Sseu-hhZcR1ujeZyAEpw==]

. The current blog discusses the time frames for borrowers returning to

A-paper status after a short sale or foreclosure. If you have both the time

and inclination, make a comment on what I have written, or on other comments

so that folks can learn what's going on out there from the other readers.



Rob



(Check out


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ress%2Fdefault.aspx]


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721&ts=S0720&p=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.thebasispoint.com%2Fcategory%2Fdaily-basis].

For archived commentaries, go to www.robchrisman.com

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Copyright 2011 Rob Chrisman.  All rights reserved. Occasional paid notices

do appear.

This report or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or

redistributed without the written consent of Rob Chrisman.)

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Chrisman Inc. | 326 Mission Ave. | 326 Mission Ave. | San Rafael | CA |

94901

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