Friday the 13th
comes three times this year, and this is one of them.
I
can think of three more companies that won't be sending chocolate to the CFPB
or Federal Trade Commission tomorrow. None of the companies admitted wrongdoing,
but were accused by the FTC and fined by the CFPB for falsely implied
affiliation with the U.S. government. The CFPB filed a lawsuit against
reverse mortgage lender All Financial Services and issued consent orders
against Flagship Financial Group and American Preferred Lending. The
allegations stem from a joint review by the FTC & CFPB.
The agencies surveyed consumer complaints and 800 randomly selected mortgage
ads to catch potential wrongdoing. The CFPB said the three companies
"imitated U.S. government notices" in mailings to consumers such as
an eagle resembling the Great Seal of the United States. Headers on the notices
read, "GOVERNMENT LENDING DIVISION" and "Housing and Recovery
Act of 2008 Eligibility Notice."
Utah's Flagship has agreed to
pay a civil penalty of $225,000 while California's American Preferred will pay
$85,000 - probably enough to really hurt but not put them out of business.
Reverse mortgage lenders are
particularly interested in All Financial. It is also accused of claiming
reverse mortgage borrowers had no monthly payments without informing them they
still had to pay taxes and insurance, and supposedly failed to disclose that
payments could come due if the borrower dies and the spouse, who did not sign
the mortgage, remains in the home.
The CA Department of Business
Oversight has fined online loan servicer CashCall $1 million to settle
allegations the company deceived consumers, exceeded interest rate caps for
nonbank lenders and lied to regulators about how much they would charge for
personal loans.
"Well a great black river
a man had found
So he put all his money in a
hole in the ground
And sent a big steel arm
drivin' down down down
Man now I live on the streets
of Houston town.
Packed up my wife and kids when
winter came along
And we headed down south with
just spit and a song
But they said 'Sorry son it's
gone gone gone'."
So sang Bruce in
"Seeds". Will the decline in oil prices have the same impact on the
Texas economy, and other states like North Dakota, Alaska, and Alabama?
Remember when a pipeline shut down in Nigeria would cause a spike in oil
prices? Now none of our oil comes from Nigeria. Citibank says the US gets about
25% of its oil from overseas sources, and the drop in oil prices is projected
to put $1,400 into the pockets of every household in the US. That certainly
helps consumer confidence in general, but not if your livelihood is oil. And
the New York Times reports lower oil prices could hurt large bank lending to
the energy sector and reduce fees. Meanwhile, it could also hit banks in energy
producing states with more defaults and also extend to companies that service
oil producers in other states.
Jeff B. sent me a note recently
saying, "I was amused to learn the price of gas may enable first time
homebuyers to save more for a down payment. In most areas they can buy
without any money - the underlying challenge remains- lack of wage
growth. Middle America is still not enjoying a real recovery."
With oil's stature as a
high-demand global commodity comes the possibility that major fluctuations in
price can have a significant economic impact, and thus an impact on mortgage
rates. The two primary factors that impact the price of oil are supply/demand
and market sentiment. As demand increases (or supply decreases) the price
should go up and vice versa. The price of oil as we know it is actually set in
the oil futures market. (Remember that an oil futures contract is a binding
agreement that gives one the right to purchase oil by the barrel at a
predefined price on a predefined date in the future. Under a futures contract,
both the buyer and the seller - either a trader, hedger, or speculator - are
obligated to fulfill their side of the transaction on the specified date.)
But speaking of price, analysts
are quick to point out that oil prices aren't actually that low on a historical
basis. Sure it has gone from more than $100 per barrel to less than $50 in a
few months, helping all of us every time we put gas in our car or turn on our
thermostats. But $50 a barrel for oil is still kind of high, compared to what
it has cost in the past, especially when you adjust for inflation. The average
price for imported oil from 1986 to 2004 was $33 per barrel. And there have
only been two times in the past 40 years when oil prices jumped to an
inflation-adjusted $100 a barrel: in the 1970s and starting in 2008.
While all oil-producing nations
are suffering as oil prices collapse, the hardest hit nation is Venezuela. It's
getting crushed as oil prices collapse since oil accounts for 95% of export
earnings, 45% of budget revenues and 12% of GDP. If oil prices don't rebound
soon, Venezuela will default on its $35 billion in foreign debt, unless Beijing
continues lending Venezuela more money on top of the $50 billion already lent.
And no, I don't know what mortgage rates have down there.
While oil prices here are down
56% since 7/1/14, the picture is vastly different elsewhere because oil is
quoted in US dollars. Because the Canadian dollar has fallen vs. the US dollar,
when converted into Canadian currency the decline has been less severe at just
49%, while in Russia, oil prices in Rubles are unchanged. Thus, all else equal,
oil exploration and production will fall less there than here.
Although lower oil prices are
generally good for most Americans, the decline presents another side for states
and countries that produce oil, and thus the mortgage banks and banks in those
states. Vox Media reports that low oil prices will boost economic activity in
42 US states but will cause economic contraction in 8 others (the largest
effect will be felt in AL, ND and TX). Those states whose economic miracles
have been based on shale drilling, fracking and more expensive extraction
techniques will particularly be at risk. Given their size, community banks are
most likely to be involved in lending to smaller companies that support the
activities of large oil and gas (O&G) companies or the exploration and
production segment (E&P).
Among the unique aspects to
E&P is that certain extraction techniques like fracking and oil shale
drilling are only profitable and sustainable if oil prices remain reasonably
high. A report by Goldman Sachs finds that at $90 a barrel or less, many
hydraulic fracturing projects become uneconomic and fracking producers often
need a price of $80 or $85 in order to break even.
Underwriters and bankers know
that any lending based on commodity pricing carries increased risk and oil
& gas companies also typically cannot lower expenses if revenue declines,
leaving them in a tough spot if the current environment persists. Banks that
have been active O&G lenders should take another close look at their
portfolios and consider the ability of borrowers to maintain their cash flows
and debt service if the price drop is long term. For banks proactively
addressing the riskiest loans and developing damage control strategies at this
point is critical.
So yes, the drop in prices
generally equates to more money in most people's pockets. There are, however,
drawbacks for lenders who have commercial loans with those companies,
individuals who have investments tied to them, and borrowers employed in that
industry. Caution is advised.
Oil
price changes certainly change the economic picture. Economic forecasters are
always looking ahead and as the refinance business has heightened analysts are
not afraid to opine the implications this may cause. Mortgage-backed securities
are sensitive to sudden shifts in rates, resulting in potential negative
effects on returns, as borrowing costs impact the rate at which homeowners
refinance, resulting in securities being paid off sooner than expected. When
securities are paid off more quickly, returns can suffer, which was evident
last month. For example, according to Bank of America index data, the
mortgage-backed securities guaranteed by Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac or Ginnie Mae
last month returned 0.95 percentage points less than other comparable
government debt. This was the largest underperformance since November 2008.
Within
the past seven years, oil fell to the lowest level last month; similarly, the
interest rate for a 30-year fixed rate mortgage fell to 3.59 percent at the
beginning of February. The refinance share has boomed among the low interest
rate environment, as refinance applications grew 84 percent in the last three
weeks of January. This can negatively impact the return on mortgage bonds as
more homeowners repay at par loans that are bundled within securities that
trade for a higher value. Yet, as oil prices begin to stabilize, bond yields
are expected to rise, which should move interest rates above 4 percent,
downsizing the refinance market share.
Turning to the markets ahead of
this three-day weekend, yesterday we learned that Retail Sales fell 0.8% in
January following a 0.9% decrease in December. Initial jobless claims
increased 25,000 to 304,000. The 4-week moving average (a better measure) was
289,750, a decrease of 3,250 from the previous week's revised average. With no
news of substance this morning the 10-yr closed Thursday at 1.99% and this
morning we're at 2.02% with agency MBS prices worse about .125.
No comments:
Post a Comment