A woman went into a hardware store to
purchase a bale of peat moss. She gave a personal check in payment and said to
the clerk, "I suppose you will want some identification."
He replied, without hesitation, "No
ma'am, that won't be necessary."
"How come?" asked the woman.
"Crooks don't usually buy peat
moss," answered the clerk.
Memorial Day is coming up - the unofficial start of summer. And
barbecuing! Thanks to Kansas' John M. for sending this along this list of the top 50 BBQ places in Texas.
Products
Media Center LLC, an industry leading provider of
CRM has partnered with another leading technology innovator, Optimal Blue, to
infuse its CRM/Automated Marketing platform with OB's real-time pricing
information, which is 99.99% accurate at all levels for mortgage firms. Media
Center has provided CRM/marketing since 1995 and recognizes that their platform
must work seamlessly with other "Best in Class" solutions to maximize
user benefits. Dan Harrington, founder of the Media Center, says,
"It's really a dance that requires creative dexterity to connect the
leading pricing technology (OB) with a CRM/marketing platform that's proven to
be 'insanely simple' to use. When you get that right, as we've done in our
partnership with Optimal Blue, the benefits for LOs are extraordinary."
Originators whose companies are currently using Optimal Blue can learn more
about the prospecting and data-mining benefits of OB's integrated pricing
engine working within the Media Center's CRM by contacting Paul Harrington,
Business Development, at 720-931-2375.
New home sales trends
"Pending" Home Sales, "Existing" Home
Sales, and "New" Home Sales - take your pick. They all show something
slightly different, and economists have their favorites. Housing and jobs play
critical roles in the United States economy, thus the abundance of various
statistics for each one. What have New Home Sales been doing recently? The
numbers measure sales of newly built homes, and are a lagging indicator since the
number comes out late in the subsequent month. Remember that sales can head
higher, or lower, for different reasons. For example, do sales drop because no
one wants a home, they're too exps maintained a strong momentum by rising by
more than 6% from January and by nearly 13% from a year ago.
New home sales rose 5.5% YOY to 555,000 in January. This
was 3.7% above the revised December reading. The median new home price was
$312,900 and the average price was $360,900. At the end of the month, there
were 265,000 new homes for sale, which represents a 5.7-month supply. The press
took note since we were barely back to pre-1990 levels which doesn't even
consider things like population growth and obsolescence. January's data
followed a downwardly revised 535K in December.
Sales fell in December to a seasonally adjusted annual
rate of 535k/month, a 10-month low. This data series is volatile, so new home
sales for FY 2016 were still up 12.2% to 563k. The median sales price was up
7.9% y/y (4.3% m/m) to $322,500. Analysts noted that lower sales pushed
available supply up to 5.8 months of sales. There were about 259,000 units for
sale at the end of December, which represents a 5.8-month supply.
ensive, or there are none for sale?
April's numbers just came out yesterday. We learned that
new U.S. single-family home sales tumbled over 11% from near a 9-1/2-year high
in April, down to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 569,00 units last month.
March's sales pace was revised up to 642,000 units, which was the highest level
since October 2007. New home sales increased 0.5 percent on a year-on-year
basis. April's sales drop came after three straight months of increases - so no
big deal apparently. The key takeaway from the report is that upward revisions
to prior months more than made up for the shortfall in April relative to the
consensus estimate. The median selling price fell to $309,200 from $318,700 in
March. That statistic can easily be affected by selling prices, i.e., home
values are not declining but cheaper homes are seeing more sales. Sales in
the West declined by 26.3%.
It isn't hard to find very high permit prices, rising
building material costs, shortages of lots, and fewer laborers. All that has
helped keep house prices elevated. The inventory of new homes on the market
increased 1.5 percent to 268,000 units last month, the highest level since July
2009. Still, new housing stock remains less than half of what it was at its
peak during the housing boom in 2006. (A six-month supply is viewed as a
healthy balance between supply and demand.)
In February new home sales maintained a strong momentum by rising by
more than 6% from January and by nearly 13% from a year ago.
New home sales rose 5.5% YOY to 555,000 in January. This
was 3.7% above the revised December reading. The median new home price was
$312,900 and the average price was $360,900. At the end of the month, there
were 265,000 new homes for sale, which represents a 5.7-month supply. The press
took note since we were barely back to pre-1990 levels which doesn't even
consider things like population growth and obsolescence. January's data
followed a downwardly revised 535K in December.
Sales fell in December to a seasonally adjusted annual
rate of 535k/month, a 10-month low. This data series is volatile, so new home
sales for FY 2016 were still up 12.2% to 563k. The median sales price was up
7.9% y/y (4.3% m/m) to $322,500. Analysts noted that lower sales pushed
available supply up to 5.8 months of sales. There were about 259,000 units for
sale at the end of December, which represents a 5.8-month supply.
The month before, new home sales increased 5.2% in
November to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 592,000. That was 16.5% higher
than the estimate for the same period a year ago, interesting since November's
move came despite rising mortgage rates (or maybe because of them as some
buyers rushed to lock in lower rates), providing a nice leading indicator for
economic activity.
Continuing our look back, September's new home sales rate
came in below expectations at 593,000/year. In August sales came in at an
annualized rate of 575k, a little better than expected, but below last month's
659k pace. The median sales price of new houses sold in August 2016 was
$284,000; the average sales price was $353,600. The seasonally adjusted
estimate of new houses for sale at the end of August was 235,000, a supply of
4.6 months at the then current sales rate.
New home sales in the U.S. leapt to an eight-year high of
654K (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in July 2016 although the median selling
price fell 0.5% y/y to $294,600. Inventory fell to 4.3 months' worth of sales.
And in May sales fell to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 551K in May from
586K in April (revised down from 619K). The downturn in May featured a 33.3%
decline in sales in the Northeast, although every region experienced a sales
drop except for the Midwest (+12.9%). Notably, the South and the West -- the
two biggest regions for new home sales -- saw sales decline 0.9% and 15.6%,
respectively.
Going back to summer of last year, new home sales came in much stronger than expected, at
an annual rate of 619,000. This was the highest level since early 2008.
Capital markets
Looking at interest rates through the bond market,
yesterday things were quiet until - are you ready for this? - a 52-week
Treasury bill auction was met with very weak demand. The metrics of the $20
billion auction weren't good ("sloppy"), giving folks an excuse to
sell fixed-income securities. Once the selling gathered some steam, even a warm
reception for the $26 billion 2-year Treasury auction could not stem the tide.
And yes, new home sales were poor, but not catastrophic enough to cause rates
to drop. The 10-year note worsened about .250 while the 5-year and agency MBS
prices sold-off .125.
But today is a brand-spankin'-new day, right? We've
already had the MBA's read on last week's applications (driven entirely be
refinances it was +4.4%, but still 30% lower than a year ago). Coming up are
the non-market moving FHFA Home Price Index and existing home sales. This
afternoon are the minutes from the May 2-3 FOMC meeting to be released at 2PM
ET. Market participants will look for expanded thinking regarding the Fed's
balance sheet strategy. We start the day with rates little changed compared
to Tuesday's close: the 10-year is yielding 2.28% and agency MBS prices are
better by a smidge depending on coupon.
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