Today's
Rate Volatility: NEUTRAL
What happened yesterday?
Mortgage backed
securities (MBS) gained +35 basis points from Tuesday's close which caused 30
year fixed rates to move slightly lower.Durable Goods Orders came in at 0.1% vs estimates that ranged from 0.0% to 0.2%. But the prior reading was revised downward to a dismal -8.2%. Still, it was an O.K. reading and close to expectations, the bond market was not materially impacted by this reading. New Home Sales 421K vs est of 420K, this was a 7.9% gain from the much weaker prior period. This was not enough of a beat to materially impact pricing but it is good news that sales are up during a period of increasing mortgage rates. 5YR Treasury Auction results: $35B at 1.436% with a bid-to-cover of 2.67 vs recent avg 2.7, fairly decent demand but not a block buster. Not a big factor in rates either. So, we had three events and none of them were enough of a variation to market expectations to influence bond prices. Yet, bond prices have steadily improved today...why? Answer: Its the showdown on the shut down. Treasury Secretary Jack Lew stated today that we would run out of cash a little later than originally thought (October 17th). This could give everyone more time to negotiate an extension to keep the government open. But the market is still betting that there will be a government shut down and that is why MBS pricing is rising (better rates for you) and Treasury yields are falling. Also, our friends overseas are helping to drive up our pricing (rates moving inversely...or lower - so that is good) as the European Central Bank (ECB) President Draghi has said they are ready to pump more cash into the banking system and are considering other stimulative measures. Bottom line, rates are improving but not due to U.S. economic forces.
What is on the agenda for today?
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Thursday, September 26, 2013
How a Government Shut Down Impact Lending
http://globalhomefinance.com
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