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Treasuries and mortgages opened weaker this morning in very light trading, most traders are off today. The markets will close early this afternoon; all but the stock market that will go with normal hours.
At 8:30 Nov durable goods orders were up 3.8% (forecasts +2.0%); ex transportation orders up 0.3% as expected; demand for aircraft outweighed declines in spending on computers and equipment. Demand for business equipment excluding military hardware and aircraft dropped 1.2% in November, the biggest decline since January. Nov personal income and spending, both up 0.1%; slightly weaker than expected. The stock market opened +41 on increasing belief at the moment that the US economy is recovering and improving. Whether that is the case, at the present that is what is believed. Weaker income and spending isn't very encouraging.
The House finally passed the payroll tax extension last night. The House plans to clear the bill later today for President Barack Obama’s signature. It would extend a two-percentage-point payroll tax cut, continue expanded unemployment benefits and head off a reduction in Medicare payments to doctors through February. Lawmakers plan to negotiate on a longer-term plan in the new year.
The view that the US economy is gaining momentum is questionable; based on recent reports it looks decent but there are an equal number of recent economic reports that refute the view of improvement. This morning's data were not bell ringers; income and spending lower than expected, durable goods orders without the volatile aircraft industry wasn't that good. Nevertheless, at the moment markets are holding an optimistic outlook, although the view can change quickly.
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